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Cambridge United vs Barnsley — League One 2018

Cambridge United
Cambridge United
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Barnsley
Barnsley
10/3/2023League OneLeague One · Round 11Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 92+ matches

Cambridge United32%
×Draw26%
Barnsley42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambridge United
1.20
Barnsley
1.41

Barnsley creates 18% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 118 away

creates per match

Cambridge United
1.08
Barnsley
1.59

allows per match

Cambridge United
1.22
Barnsley
1.31

finishing

Cambridge United+0.00on par
Barnsley+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Barnsley →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw
58%
Cambridge United or Barnsley
74%
Draw or Barnsley
68%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+
13%
Barnsley wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals
70%
Cambridge United 2+ goals
34%
Cambridge United 3+ goals
12%
Barnsley 1+ goals
76%
Barnsley 2+ goals
41%
Barnsley 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)
43%
Barnsley (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.08, concedes 1.22 · 92 matches

Barnsley away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.31 · 118 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.08 + Barnsley defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.20

Barnsley attack 1.59 + Cambridge United defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Cambridge United scores more
32%
level
26%
Barnsley scores more
42%

Barnsley at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambridge United vs Barnsley

Barnsley beat Cambridge United 4-0 in League One on October 3, 2023.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge, Cambridgeshire.