Cambridge United 2–0 Accrington ST: Result & Stats

Cambridge United

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Accrington ST

S. Kaikai 60'

J. Gibbons 45'

12/19/2025

League Two · Round 21Abbey Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

Cambridge United58%

×Draw24%

Accrington ST18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambridge UnitedExpected goals in this matchAccrington ST

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

0.84

Cambridge United

1.71

Accrington ST

0.84

Cambridge United creates 104% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 11 away

1.77

creates per match

0.88

0.80

allows per match

1.66

creates per match

Cambridge United

1.77

Accrington ST

0.88

allows per match

Cambridge United

0.80

Accrington ST

1.66

+0.73scores more than expected

finishing

-0.15scores less than expected

finishing

Cambridge United+0.73scores more

Accrington ST-0.15scores less

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambridge United ↓

Accrington ST →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Cambridge United or draw

82%

Cambridge United or Accrington ST

76%

Draw or Accrington ST

42%

Winning margin

Cambridge United wins by 2+

32%

Accrington ST wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cambridge United 1+ goals

82%

Cambridge United 2+ goals

51%

Cambridge United 3+ goals

24%

Accrington ST 1+ goals

57%

Accrington ST 2+ goals

21%

Accrington ST 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Cambridge United (draw refunded)

76%

Accrington ST (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambridge United at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.80 · 10 matches

Accrington ST away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.66 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambridge United attack 1.77 + Accrington ST defence 1.66 → ÷2 → 1.71

Accrington ST attack 0.88 + Cambridge United defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Cambridge United scores more

58%

level

24%

Accrington ST scores more

18%

Cambridge United at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Cambridge United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

15

A. Mayor

Cambridge United · D

8.9

Match Events

32'

Kelland Watts

39'

Z. Ibsen Rossi← K. Watts

45+6'

D. Martin← J. Bauress

45'

J. Gibbons↳ Z. Ibsen Rossi

60'

S. Kaikai↳ A. Mayor

65'

A. Henderson← I. Sinclair

79'

C. Brown← S. Conneely

79'

J. Woods← I. Heath

80'

S. Lavery← L. Appere

80'

S. McLoughlin← J. Brophy

86'

B. Knight← S. Kaikai

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CambridgeAccrington

Overview

45%Possession55%

8Total Shots8

1.31Expected Goals (xG)0.69

7Corners6

11Fouls7

Shots

8Total Shots8

4On Target2

3Off Target4

1Blocked2

6Inside Box4

2Outside Box4

Passing

45%Possession55%

315Total Passes412

213Accurate Passes286

68%Pass Accuracy69%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls7

1Yellow Cards0

0Offsides2

League Two: Cambridge United 2–0 Accrington ST

Cambridge United beat Accrington ST 2-0 in League Two on December 19, 2025.

Goals: J. Gibbons (45'), S. Kaikai (60').

Accrington ST controlled possession (55%) and registered 8 shots to 8.

The match was played at Abbey Stadium in Cambridge.

Cambridge United vs Accrington ST — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Cambridge United 2–0 Accrington ST