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Cambrai vs Feignies-Aulnoye — Coupe de France 2018

Cambrai
Cambrai
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
Feignies-Aulnoye
Feignies-Aulnoye
N. Bonte 86'
P. Dufour 76', 71'
T. De Parmentier 42'
11/15/2025Coupe de FranceCoupe de France · 1/128-finals

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Cambrai12%
×Draw15%
Feignies-Aulnoye73%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambrai
1.04
Feignies-Aulnoye
2.77

Feignies-Aulnoye creates 166% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 8 away

creates per match

Cambrai
1.33
Feignies-Aulnoye
2.88

allows per match

Cambrai
2.67
Feignies-Aulnoye
0.75

finishing

Cambrai+0.00on par
Feignies-Aulnoye+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambrai ↓

Feignies-Aulnoye →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Cambrai or draw
27%
Cambrai or Feignies-Aulnoye
85%
Draw or Feignies-Aulnoye
88%

Winning margin

Cambrai wins by 2+
4%
Feignies-Aulnoye wins by 2+
52%

Team goals

Cambrai 1+ goals
65%
Cambrai 2+ goals
28%
Cambrai 3+ goals
9%
Feignies-Aulnoye 1+ goals
94%
Feignies-Aulnoye 2+ goals
76%
Feignies-Aulnoye 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Cambrai (draw refunded)
14%
Feignies-Aulnoye (draw refunded)
86%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambrai at home — creates 1.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Feignies-Aulnoye away — creates 2.88, concedes 0.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambrai attack 1.33 + Feignies-Aulnoye defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.04

Feignies-Aulnoye attack 2.88 + Cambrai defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Cambrai scores more
12%
level
15%
Feignies-Aulnoye scores more
73%

Feignies-Aulnoye at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Feignies-Aulnoye will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
T. De Parmentier
71'
P. Dufour
76'
P. Dufour
86'
N. Bonte
Cambrai
Feignies-Aulnoye
V. Carpentier
Manager: V. Carpentier
J. Antunes
Manager: J. Antunes

Match Recap: Cambrai vs Feignies-Aulnoye

Feignies-Aulnoye beat Cambrai 4-0 in Coupe de France on November 15, 2025.

Goals: T. De Parmentier (42'), P. Dufour (71', 76'), N. Bonte (86').