Camboriú 1–0 Novo Hamburgo: Result & Stats

Camboriú

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Novo Hamburgo

Carlinhos 66'

7/22/2023

Serie D · 1st Phase - 14Estádio Doutor Hercílio Luz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Camboriú45%

×Draw30%

Novo Hamburgo25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CamboriúExpected goals in this matchNovo Hamburgo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

0.78

Camboriú

1.17

Novo Hamburgo

0.78

Camboriú creates 50% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 18 away

1.11

creates per match

0.78

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Camboriú

1.11

Novo Hamburgo

0.78

allows per match

Camboriú

0.78

Novo Hamburgo

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Camboriú+0.00on par

Novo Hamburgo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camboriú ↓

Novo Hamburgo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Camboriú or draw

75%

Camboriú or Novo Hamburgo

70%

Draw or Novo Hamburgo

55%

Winning margin

Camboriú wins by 2+

19%

Novo Hamburgo wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Camboriú 1+ goals

69%

Camboriú 2+ goals

33%

Camboriú 3+ goals

11%

Novo Hamburgo 1+ goals

54%

Novo Hamburgo 2+ goals

18%

Novo Hamburgo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Camboriú (draw refunded)

65%

Novo Hamburgo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camboriú at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Novo Hamburgo away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camboriú attack 1.11 + Novo Hamburgo defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.17

Novo Hamburgo attack 0.78 + Camboriú defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Camboriú scores more

45%

level

30%

Novo Hamburgo scores more

25%

Camboriú at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Camboriú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

Fabrício← Luiz Meneses

57'

Anderson← Vinícius Faria

57'

Dudu Figueiredo← Caio Cunha

66'

Carlinhos

73'

Christofer← Kevyn

82'

Itaqui← João Barbieri

82'

Nicolas← PH

82'

Rafael Furlan← Guilherme Garré

83'

Bruno Oliveira← Carlinhos

83'

Cirilo← Adaílson Sousa

90+3'

Milton← Adenilson

Camboriú

Novo

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Carlinhos

▼

Sousa

▼

Faria

57'▲Anderson←▼Vinícius Faria

57'▲Dudu Figueiredo←▼Caio Cunha

83'▲Bruno Oliveira←▼Carlinhos

83'▲Cirilo←▼Adaílson Sousa

90+3'▲Milton←▼Adenilson

Camboriú substitutes

AndersonFigueiredoOliveiraCiriloMiltonAndriwDouglasGabrielLeandroMarlonVitinhoPedro

Manager: Edson Fabio

42'▲Fabrício←▼Luiz Meneses

73'▲Christofer←▼Kevyn

82'▲Itaqui←▼João Barbieri

82'▲Nicolas←▼PH

82'▲Rafael Furlan←▼Guilherme Garré

Novo Hamburgo substitutes

FabrícioChristoferItaquiNicolasFurlanGottZanniKesleyRégis