Camboriú 3–1 FC Porto: Result & Stats

Camboriú

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

FC Porto

7/5/2025

Catarinense - 2 · Round 6Estádio Emília Mendes Rodrigues

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Camboriú83%

×Draw12%

FC Porto5%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CamboriúExpected goals in this matchFC Porto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.75

0.55

Camboriú

2.75

FC Porto

0.55

Camboriú creates 400% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 4 away

1.00

creates per match

0.25

0.86

allows per match

4.50

creates per match

Camboriú

1.00

FC Porto

0.25

allows per match

Camboriú

0.86

FC Porto

4.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Camboriú+0.00on par

FC Porto+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camboriú ↓

FC Porto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–16%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–013%

3–17%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–09%

4–15%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Camboriú or draw

95%

Camboriú or FC Porto

88%

Draw or FC Porto

17%

Winning margin

Camboriú wins by 2+

62%

FC Porto wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Camboriú 1+ goals

93%

Camboriú 2+ goals

75%

Camboriú 3+ goals

51%

FC Porto 1+ goals

42%

FC Porto 2+ goals

11%

FC Porto 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Camboriú (draw refunded)

94%

FC Porto (draw refunded)

6%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camboriú at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

FC Porto away — creates 0.25, concedes 4.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camboriú attack 1.00 + FC Porto defence 4.50 → ÷2 → 2.75

FC Porto attack 0.25 + Camboriú defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 83%?"

Camboriú scores more

83%

level

12%

FC Porto scores more

5%

Camboriú at 83% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 83% does not mean "Camboriú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff