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Camboriú vs Caxias — Serie D 2018

Camboriú
Camboriú
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Caxias
Caxias
6/14/2023Serie DSerie D · 1st Phase - 8Estádio Eduardo Zeferino Tiago

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Camboriú42%
×Draw31%
Caxias27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camboriú
1.13
Caxias
0.85

Camboriú creates 33% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 50 away

creates per match

Camboriú
1.11
Caxias
0.92

allows per match

Camboriú
0.78
Caxias
1.14

finishing

Camboriú+0.00on par
Caxias+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camboriú ↓

Caxias →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Camboriú or draw
73%
Camboriú or Caxias
69%
Draw or Caxias
58%

Winning margin

Camboriú wins by 2+
18%
Caxias wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Camboriú 1+ goals
68%
Camboriú 2+ goals
31%
Camboriú 3+ goals
11%
Caxias 1+ goals
57%
Caxias 2+ goals
21%
Caxias 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Camboriú (draw refunded)
61%
Caxias (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camboriú at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Caxias away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.14 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camboriú attack 1.11 + Caxias defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Caxias attack 0.92 + Camboriú defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Camboriú scores more
42%
level
31%
Caxias scores more
27%

Camboriú at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Camboriú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D: Camboriú 2–1 Caxias

Camboriú beat Caxias 2-1 in Serie D on June 14, 2023.

The match was played at Estádio Eduardo Zeferino Tiago in Balneário Camboriú, Santa Catarina.