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Camboriú vs Atlético Catarinense — Catarinense - 2 2022

Camboriú
Camboriú
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Atlético Catarinense
Atlético Catarinense
7/21/2024Catarinense - 2Catarinense - 2 · Round 9Estádio Roberto Santos Garcia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 12+ matches

Camboriú40%
×Draw31%
Atlético Catarinense30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camboriú
1.08
Atlético Catarinense
0.89

Camboriú creates 21% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 12 away

creates per match

Camboriú
1.00
Atlético Catarinense
0.92

allows per match

Camboriú
0.86
Atlético Catarinense
1.17

finishing

Camboriú+0.00on par
Atlético Catarinense+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camboriú ↓

Atlético Catarinense →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Camboriú or draw
70%
Camboriú or Atlético Catarinense
69%
Draw or Atlético Catarinense
60%

Winning margin

Camboriú wins by 2+
16%
Atlético Catarinense wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Camboriú 1+ goals
66%
Camboriú 2+ goals
29%
Camboriú 3+ goals
10%
Atlético Catarinense 1+ goals
59%
Atlético Catarinense 2+ goals
22%
Atlético Catarinense 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Camboriú (draw refunded)
57%
Atlético Catarinense (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camboriú at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.86 · 14 matches

Atlético Catarinense away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camboriú attack 1.00 + Atlético Catarinense defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

Atlético Catarinense attack 0.92 + Camboriú defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Camboriú scores more
40%
level
31%
Atlético Catarinense scores more
30%

Camboriú at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Camboriú will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Camboriú vs Atlético Catarinense

Camboriú beat Atlético Catarinense 1-0 in Catarinense - 2 on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio Roberto Santos Garcia in Camboriú, Santa Catarina.