Cambodia 2–2 Timor-Leste: Result & Stats

Cambodia

FT

2 – 2

Timor-Leste

10/12/2018

Friendlies · Friendlies 3Phnom Penh National Olympic Stadium (Phnom Penh)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cambodia64%

×Draw20%

Timor-Leste17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CambodiaExpected goals in this matchTimor-Leste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.04

Cambodia

2.21

Timor-Leste

1.04

Cambodia creates 113% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 5 away

1.43

creates per match

0.80

1.29

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Cambodia

1.43

Timor-Leste

0.80

allows per match

Cambodia

1.29

Timor-Leste

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambodia+0.00on par

Timor-Leste+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambodia ↓

Timor-Leste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Cambodia or draw

83%

Cambodia or Timor-Leste

80%

Draw or Timor-Leste

36%

Winning margin

Cambodia wins by 2+

40%

Timor-Leste wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Cambodia 1+ goals

89%

Cambodia 2+ goals

65%

Cambodia 3+ goals

38%

Timor-Leste 1+ goals

65%

Timor-Leste 2+ goals

28%

Timor-Leste 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cambodia (draw refunded)

79%

Timor-Leste (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambodia at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Timor-Leste away — creates 0.80, concedes 3.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambodia attack 1.43 + Timor-Leste defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.21

Timor-Leste attack 0.80 + Cambodia defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Cambodia scores more

64%

level

20%

Timor-Leste scores more

17%

Cambodia at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Cambodia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff