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Cambodia vs Philippines — AFF Championship 2018

Cambodia
Cambodia
FT
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Philippines
Philippines
12/20/2022AFF ChampionshipAFF Championship · Group Stage - 1Morodok Techo National Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Cambodia45%
×Draw22%
Philippines34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambodia
1.97
Philippines
1.69

Cambodia creates 17% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 9 away

creates per match

Cambodia
2.38
Philippines
2.00

allows per match

Cambodia
1.38
Philippines
1.56

finishing

Cambodia+0.00on par
Philippines+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambodia ↓

Philippines →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Cambodia or draw
66%
Cambodia or Philippines
78%
Draw or Philippines
55%

Winning margin

Cambodia wins by 2+
25%
Philippines wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cambodia 1+ goals
86%
Cambodia 2+ goals
58%
Cambodia 3+ goals
31%
Philippines 1+ goals
82%
Philippines 2+ goals
50%
Philippines 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Cambodia (draw refunded)
57%
Philippines (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambodia at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

Philippines away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambodia attack 2.38 + Philippines defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.97

Philippines attack 2.00 + Cambodia defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Cambodia scores more
45%
level
22%
Philippines scores more
34%

Cambodia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Cambodia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFF Championship: Cambodia 3–2 Philippines

Cambodia beat Philippines 3-2 in AFF Championship on December 20, 2022.

The match was played at Morodok Techo National Stadium in Phnom Penh.