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Cambodia U19 vs Timor-Leste U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Cambodia U19
Cambodia U19
FT
1 – 4
HT: 0 – 2
Timor-Leste U19
Timor-Leste U19
H. Soknet 86'
L. Ribeiro 90', 81'
Zenivio 26'
O. Xavier 23'
7/11/2022AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 5Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Cambodia U1944%
×Draw24%
Timor-Leste U1933%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambodia U19
1.70
Timor-Leste U19
1.45

Cambodia U19 creates 17% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Cambodia U19
1.00
Timor-Leste U19
1.40

allows per match

Cambodia U19
1.50
Timor-Leste U19
2.40

finishing

Cambodia U19+0.00on par
Timor-Leste U19+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambodia U19 ↓

Timor-Leste U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Cambodia U19 or draw
67%
Cambodia U19 or Timor-Leste U19
76%
Draw or Timor-Leste U19
56%

Winning margin

Cambodia U19 wins by 2+
23%
Timor-Leste U19 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Cambodia U19 1+ goals
82%
Cambodia U19 2+ goals
51%
Cambodia U19 3+ goals
24%
Timor-Leste U19 1+ goals
77%
Timor-Leste U19 2+ goals
42%
Timor-Leste U19 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Cambodia U19 (draw refunded)
57%
Timor-Leste U19 (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambodia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Timor-Leste U19 away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambodia U19 attack 1.00 + Timor-Leste U19 defence 2.40 → ÷2 → 1.70

Timor-Leste U19 attack 1.40 + Cambodia U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Cambodia U19 scores more
44%
level
24%
Timor-Leste U19 scores more
33%

Cambodia U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Cambodia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'
O. Xavier
26'
Zenivio
81'
L. Ribeiro
86'
H. Soknet
90'
L. Ribeiro

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambodia U19 vs Timor-Leste U19

Timor-Leste U19 beat Cambodia U19 4-1 in AFF U19 Championship on July 11, 2022.

Goals: O. Xavier (23'), Zenivio (26'), L. Ribeiro (81', 90'), H. Soknet (86').

The match was played at Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta.