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Cambodia U19 vs Malaysia U19 — AFF U19 Championship 2022

Cambodia U19
Cambodia U19
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Malaysia U19
Malaysia U19
D. Chanvibol 55'
M. H. Haqeemi Hairi 30'
N. Akmal 13'
7/5/2022AFF U19 ChampionshipAFF U19 Championship · Group Stage - 2Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Cambodia U1918%
×Draw20%
Malaysia U1962%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambodia U19
1.07
Malaysia U19
2.18

Malaysia U19 creates 104% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Cambodia U19
1.00
Malaysia U19
2.86

allows per match

Cambodia U19
1.50
Malaysia U19
1.14

finishing

Cambodia U19+0.00on par
Malaysia U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambodia U19 ↓

Malaysia U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–19%
0–29%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Cambodia U19 or draw
38%
Cambodia U19 or Malaysia U19
80%
Draw or Malaysia U19
82%

Winning margin

Cambodia U19 wins by 2+
6%
Malaysia U19 wins by 2+
39%

Team goals

Cambodia U19 1+ goals
66%
Cambodia U19 2+ goals
29%
Cambodia U19 3+ goals
9%
Malaysia U19 1+ goals
89%
Malaysia U19 2+ goals
64%
Malaysia U19 3+ goals
37%

Draw no bet

Cambodia U19 (draw refunded)
22%
Malaysia U19 (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambodia U19 at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

Malaysia U19 away — creates 2.86, concedes 1.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambodia U19 attack 1.00 + Malaysia U19 defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.07

Malaysia U19 attack 2.86 + Cambodia U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Cambodia U19 scores more
18%
level
20%
Malaysia U19 scores more
62%

Malaysia U19 at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Malaysia U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'
N. Akmal
30'
M. H. Haqeemi Hairi
55'
D. Chanvibol

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambodia U19 vs Malaysia U19

Malaysia U19 beat Cambodia U19 2-1 in AFF U19 Championship on July 5, 2022.

Goals: N. Akmal (13'), M. H. Haqeemi Hairi (30'), D. Chanvibol (55').

The match was played at Stadion Madya Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta.