Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Cambé U20 vs Rio Branco PR U20 — Paranaense U20 2024

Cambé U20
Cambé U20
FT
4 – 4
Rio Branco PR U20
Rio Branco PR U20
5/10/2024Paranaense U20Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 9Estádio José Garbelini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cambé U2054%
×Draw20%
Rio Branco PR U2026%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambé U20
2.33
Rio Branco PR U20
1.60

Cambé U20 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 15 away

creates per match

Cambé U20
2.00
Rio Branco PR U20
1.20

allows per match

Cambé U20
2.00
Rio Branco PR U20
2.67

finishing

Cambé U20+0.00on par
Rio Branco PR U20+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

72%Yes
  • Yes72
  • No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambé U20 ↓

Rio Branco PR U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Cambé U20 or draw
74%
Cambé U20 or Rio Branco PR U20
80%
Draw or Rio Branco PR U20
46%

Winning margin

Cambé U20 wins by 2+
33%
Rio Branco PR U20 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Cambé U20 1+ goals
90%
Cambé U20 2+ goals
67%
Cambé U20 3+ goals
41%
Rio Branco PR U20 1+ goals
80%
Rio Branco PR U20 2+ goals
47%
Rio Branco PR U20 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Cambé U20 (draw refunded)
67%
Rio Branco PR U20 (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambé U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Rio Branco PR U20 away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambé U20 attack 2.00 + Rio Branco PR U20 defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Rio Branco PR U20 attack 1.20 + Cambé U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Cambé U20 scores more
54%
level
20%
Rio Branco PR U20 scores more
26%

Cambé U20 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Cambé U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambé U20 vs Rio Branco PR U20

Cambé U20 and Rio Branco PR U20 drew 4-4 in Paranaense U20 on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estádio José Garbelini in Cambé, Paraná.