Cambé U20 2–0 Prudentópolis U20: Result & Stats

Cambé U20

FT

2 – 0

Prudentópolis U20

3/23/2024

Paranaense U20 · 1st Stage - 2Estádio José Garbelini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Cambé U2074%

×Draw14%

Prudentópolis U2012%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Cambé U20Expected goals in this matchPrudentópolis U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.33

1.33

Cambé U20

3.33

Prudentópolis U20

1.33

Cambé U20 creates 150% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

2.00

creates per match

0.67

2.00

allows per match

4.67

creates per match

Cambé U20

2.00

Prudentópolis U20

0.67

allows per match

Cambé U20

2.00

Prudentópolis U20

4.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cambé U20+0.00on par

Prudentópolis U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over83
Under17

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambé U20 ↓

Prudentópolis U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–03%

1–14%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 79% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

94%6%2.5

83%17%3.5

67%33%4.5

47%53%

Double chance

Cambé U20 or draw

88%

Cambé U20 or Prudentópolis U20

86%

Draw or Prudentópolis U20

26%

Winning margin

Cambé U20 wins by 2+

56%

Prudentópolis U20 wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Cambé U20 1+ goals

96%

Cambé U20 2+ goals

84%

Cambé U20 3+ goals

63%

Prudentópolis U20 1+ goals

74%

Prudentópolis U20 2+ goals

38%

Prudentópolis U20 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Cambé U20 (draw refunded)

86%

Prudentópolis U20 (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

4%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambé U20 at home — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Prudentópolis U20 away — creates 0.67, concedes 4.67 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambé U20 attack 2.00 + Prudentópolis U20 defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.33

Prudentópolis U20 attack 0.67 + Cambé U20 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Cambé U20 scores more

74%

level

14%

Prudentópolis U20 scores more

12%

Cambé U20 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Cambé U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff