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Cambados vs Coruña — Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 2019

Cambados
Cambados
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Coruña
Coruña
1/18/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 1Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 · Group 1 - 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Cambados29%
×Draw31%
Coruña40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cambados
0.89
Coruña
1.11

Coruña creates 25% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

Cambados
0.59
Coruña
1.29

allows per match

Cambados
0.94
Coruña
1.18

finishing

Cambados+0.00on par
Coruña+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cambados ↓

Coruña →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–115%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Cambados or draw
60%
Cambados or Coruña
69%
Draw or Coruña
71%

Winning margin

Cambados wins by 2+
10%
Coruña wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cambados 1+ goals
59%
Cambados 2+ goals
22%
Cambados 3+ goals
6%
Coruña 1+ goals
67%
Coruña 2+ goals
30%
Coruña 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Cambados (draw refunded)
42%
Coruña (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cambados at home — creates 0.59, concedes 0.94 · 17 matches

Coruña away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cambados attack 0.59 + Coruña defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.89

Coruña attack 1.29 + Cambados defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cambados scores more
29%
level
31%
Coruña scores more
40%

Coruña at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Coruña will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Cambados vs Coruña

Cambados and Coruña drew 0-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 on January 18, 2026.