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Câmara de Lobos vs Leça — Taça de Portugal 2018

Câmara de Lobos
Câmara de Lobos
FT
2 – 1
Leça
Leça
9/27/2020Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundEstádio Municipal de Camara de Lobos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Câmara de Lobos27%
×Draw23%
Leça50%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Câmara de Lobos
1.24
Leça
1.77

Leça creates 43% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Câmara de Lobos
0.67
Leça
1.20

allows per match

Câmara de Lobos
2.33
Leça
1.80

finishing

Câmara de Lobos+0.00on par
Leça+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Câmara de Lobos ↓

Leça →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–28%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Câmara de Lobos or draw
50%
Câmara de Lobos or Leça
77%
Draw or Leça
73%

Winning margin

Câmara de Lobos wins by 2+
11%
Leça wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Câmara de Lobos 1+ goals
71%
Câmara de Lobos 2+ goals
35%
Câmara de Lobos 3+ goals
13%
Leça 1+ goals
83%
Leça 2+ goals
53%
Leça 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Câmara de Lobos (draw refunded)
35%
Leça (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Câmara de Lobos at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

Leça away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Câmara de Lobos attack 0.67 + Leça defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.24

Leça attack 1.20 + Câmara de Lobos defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Câmara de Lobos scores more
27%
level
23%
Leça scores more
50%

Leça at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Leça will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Câmara de Lobos vs Leça

Câmara de Lobos beat Leça 2-1 in Taça de Portugal on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal de Camara de Lobos in Câmara de Lobos.