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Camacha vs Famalicao — Taça de Portugal 2018

Camacha
Camacha
FT
0 – 5
HT: 0 – 2
Famalicao
Famalicao
11/18/2023Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 3rd RoundComplexo Desportivo da Camacha Campo B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Camacha25%
×Draw22%
Famalicao53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camacha
1.30
Famalicao
1.96

Famalicao creates 51% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 14 away

creates per match

Camacha
1.60
Famalicao
1.93

allows per match

Camacha
2.00
Famalicao
1.00

finishing

Camacha+0.00on par
Famalicao+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camacha ↓

Famalicao →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Camacha or draw
47%
Camacha or Famalicao
78%
Draw or Famalicao
75%

Winning margin

Camacha wins by 2+
11%
Famalicao wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Camacha 1+ goals
73%
Camacha 2+ goals
37%
Camacha 3+ goals
14%
Famalicao 1+ goals
86%
Famalicao 2+ goals
58%
Famalicao 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Camacha (draw refunded)
33%
Famalicao (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camacha at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Famalicao away — creates 1.93, concedes 1.00 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camacha attack 1.60 + Famalicao defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Famalicao attack 1.93 + Camacha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Camacha scores more
25%
level
22%
Famalicao scores more
53%

Famalicao at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Famalicao will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Camacha 0–5 Famalicao

Famalicao beat Camacha 5-0 in Taça de Portugal on November 18, 2023.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo da Camacha Campo B in Camacha.