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Camacha vs Amarante — Taça de Portugal 2018

Camacha
Camacha
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Amarante
Amarante
9/11/2022Taça de PortugalTaça de Portugal · 1st RoundComplexo Desportivo da Camacha Campo B

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Camacha33%
×Draw22%
Amarante45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camacha
1.58
Amarante
1.86

Amarante creates 18% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

creates per match

Camacha
1.60
Amarante
1.73

allows per match

Camacha
2.00
Amarante
1.55

finishing

Camacha+0.00on par
Amarante+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camacha ↓

Amarante →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Camacha or draw
55%
Camacha or Amarante
78%
Draw or Amarante
67%

Winning margin

Camacha wins by 2+
16%
Amarante wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Camacha 1+ goals
79%
Camacha 2+ goals
47%
Camacha 3+ goals
21%
Amarante 1+ goals
84%
Amarante 2+ goals
55%
Amarante 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Camacha (draw refunded)
43%
Amarante (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camacha at home — creates 1.60, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

Amarante away — creates 1.73, concedes 1.55 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camacha attack 1.60 + Amarante defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58

Amarante attack 1.73 + Camacha defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Camacha scores more
33%
level
22%
Amarante scores more
45%

Amarante at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Amarante will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Taça de Portugal: Camacha 1–0 Amarante

Camacha beat Amarante 1-0 in Taça de Portugal on September 11, 2022.

The match was played at Complexo Desportivo da Camacha Campo B in Camacha.