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Camaçari vs Colo Colo — Baiano - 2 2019

Camaçari
Camaçari
FT
0 – 8
Colo Colo
Colo Colo
7/11/2021Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 4Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Camaçari8%
×Draw14%
Colo Colo78%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camaçari
0.82
Colo Colo
2.79

Colo Colo creates 240% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 17 away

creates per match

Camaçari
0.83
Colo Colo
1.59

allows per match

Camaçari
4.00
Colo Colo
0.82

finishing

Camaçari+0.00on par
Colo Colo+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camaçari ↓

Colo Colo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–18%
0–211%
0–310%
0–47%
1
1–02%
1–16%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–24%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–21%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (11%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Camaçari or draw
22%
Camaçari or Colo Colo
86%
Draw or Colo Colo
92%

Winning margin

Camaçari wins by 2+
2%
Colo Colo wins by 2+
57%

Team goals

Camaçari 1+ goals
56%
Camaçari 2+ goals
20%
Camaçari 3+ goals
5%
Colo Colo 1+ goals
94%
Colo Colo 2+ goals
76%
Colo Colo 3+ goals
52%

Draw no bet

Camaçari (draw refunded)
10%
Colo Colo (draw refunded)
90%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camaçari at home — creates 0.83, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

Colo Colo away — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camaçari attack 0.83 + Colo Colo defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.82

Colo Colo attack 1.59 + Camaçari defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Camaçari scores more
8%
level
14%
Colo Colo scores more
78%

Colo Colo at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Colo Colo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Camaçari vs Colo Colo

Colo Colo beat Camaçari 8-0 in Baiano - 2 on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Alberto Oliveira in Feira de Santana, Bahia.