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Camaçari vs Botafogo BA — Baiano - 2 2019

Camaçari
Camaçari
FT
1 – 2
Botafogo BA
Botafogo BA
6/27/2021Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 1Estádio Alberto Oliveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Camaçari15%
×Draw17%
Botafogo BA68%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Camaçari
1.14
Botafogo BA
2.61

Botafogo BA creates 129% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 9 away

creates per match

Camaçari
0.83
Botafogo BA
1.22

allows per match

Camaçari
4.00
Botafogo BA
1.44

finishing

Camaçari+0.00on par
Botafogo BA+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Camaçari ↓

Botafogo BA →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–16%
0–28%
0–37%
0–45%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–45%
2
2–02%
2–14%
2–25%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Camaçari or draw
32%
Camaçari or Botafogo BA
83%
Draw or Botafogo BA
85%

Winning margin

Camaçari wins by 2+
5%
Botafogo BA wins by 2+
47%

Team goals

Camaçari 1+ goals
68%
Camaçari 2+ goals
32%
Camaçari 3+ goals
11%
Botafogo BA 1+ goals
93%
Botafogo BA 2+ goals
73%
Botafogo BA 3+ goals
47%

Draw no bet

Camaçari (draw refunded)
18%
Botafogo BA (draw refunded)
82%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Camaçari at home — creates 0.83, concedes 4.00 · 6 matches

Botafogo BA away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.44 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Camaçari attack 0.83 + Botafogo BA defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.14

Botafogo BA attack 1.22 + Camaçari defence 4.00 → ÷2 → 2.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Camaçari scores more
15%
level
17%
Botafogo BA scores more
68%

Botafogo BA at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Botafogo BA will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Camaçari vs Botafogo BA

Botafogo BA beat Camaçari 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on June 27, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio Alberto Oliveira in Feira de Santana, Bahia.