Calvo Sotelo 1–0 Valdepeñas: Result & Stats

Calvo Sotelo

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Valdepeñas

10/20/2024

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 7Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Calvo Sotelo64%

×Draw24%

Valdepeñas12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calvo SoteloExpected goals in this matchValdepeñas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.55

Calvo Sotelo

1.65

Valdepeñas

0.55

Calvo Sotelo creates 200% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 17 away

1.83

creates per match

0.41

0.70

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Calvo Sotelo

1.83

Valdepeñas

0.41

allows per match

Calvo Sotelo

0.70

Valdepeñas

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Valdepeñas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvo Sotelo ↓

Valdepeñas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–16%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–110%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–15%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Calvo Sotelo or draw

88%

Calvo Sotelo or Valdepeñas

76%

Draw or Valdepeñas

36%

Winning margin

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+

36%

Valdepeñas wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals

81%

Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals

49%

Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals

23%

Valdepeñas 1+ goals

42%

Valdepeñas 2+ goals

11%

Valdepeñas 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)

84%

Valdepeñas (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvo Sotelo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

Valdepeñas away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.83 + Valdepeñas defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.65

Valdepeñas attack 0.41 + Calvo Sotelo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Calvo Sotelo scores more

64%

level

24%

Valdepeñas scores more

12%

Calvo Sotelo at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff