Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Calvo Sotelo vs Marchamalo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Marchamalo
Marchamalo
11/23/2025Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 12Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Calvo Sotelo54%
×Draw26%
Marchamalo21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvo Sotelo
1.56
Marchamalo
0.86

Calvo Sotelo creates 81% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 79 away

creates per match

Calvo Sotelo
1.83
Marchamalo
1.03

allows per match

Calvo Sotelo
0.70
Marchamalo
1.29

finishing

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par
Marchamalo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvo Sotelo ↓

Marchamalo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Calvo Sotelo or draw
79%
Calvo Sotelo or Marchamalo
74%
Draw or Marchamalo
46%

Winning margin

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
28%
Marchamalo wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
79%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
46%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
21%
Marchamalo 1+ goals
58%
Marchamalo 2+ goals
21%
Marchamalo 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
72%
Marchamalo (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvo Sotelo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

Marchamalo away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.29 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.83 + Marchamalo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.56

Marchamalo attack 1.03 + Calvo Sotelo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Calvo Sotelo scores more
54%
level
26%
Marchamalo scores more
21%

Calvo Sotelo at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18: Calvo Sotelo 2–0 Marchamalo

Calvo Sotelo beat Marchamalo 2-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano in Puertollano.