Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Calvo Sotelo vs La Roda — Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 2019

Calvo Sotelo
Calvo Sotelo
CANC
22:00
La Roda
La Roda
5/16/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 18Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 38Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Calvo Sotelo68%
×Draw21%
La Roda10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvo Sotelo
1.84
La Roda
0.55

Calvo Sotelo creates 235% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Calvo Sotelo
1.83
La Roda
0.41

allows per match

Calvo Sotelo
0.70
La Roda
1.85

finishing

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par
La Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvo Sotelo ↓

La Roda →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Calvo Sotelo or draw
90%
Calvo Sotelo or La Roda
79%
Draw or La Roda
32%

Winning margin

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+
41%
La Roda wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals
84%
Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals
55%
Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals
28%
La Roda 1+ goals
42%
La Roda 2+ goals
11%
La Roda 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)
87%
La Roda (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvo Sotelo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

La Roda away — creates 0.41, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.83 + La Roda defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.84

La Roda attack 0.41 + Calvo Sotelo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Calvo Sotelo scores more
68%
level
21%
La Roda scores more
10%

Calvo Sotelo at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Calvo Sotelo vs La Roda — Match Preview

Calvo Sotelo face La Roda on May 16, 2020 in this Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Calvo Sotelo host La Roda at Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.