Calvo Sotelo 1–3 Albacete II: Result & Stats

Calvo Sotelo

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Albacete II

9/6/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 · Group 18 - 1Estadio Ciudad de Puertollano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 93+ matches

Calvo Sotelo47%

×Draw26%

Albacete II27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calvo SoteloExpected goals in this matchAlbacete II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.04

Calvo Sotelo

1.46

Albacete II

1.04

Calvo Sotelo creates 40% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 96 away

1.83

creates per match

1.38

0.70

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Calvo Sotelo

1.83

Albacete II

1.38

allows per match

Calvo Sotelo

0.70

Albacete II

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calvo Sotelo+0.00on par

Albacete II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvo Sotelo ↓

Albacete II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Calvo Sotelo or draw

73%

Calvo Sotelo or Albacete II

74%

Draw or Albacete II

53%

Winning margin

Calvo Sotelo wins by 2+

23%

Albacete II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Calvo Sotelo 1+ goals

77%

Calvo Sotelo 2+ goals

43%

Calvo Sotelo 3+ goals

18%

Albacete II 1+ goals

65%

Albacete II 2+ goals

28%

Albacete II 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Calvo Sotelo (draw refunded)

63%

Albacete II (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvo Sotelo at home — creates 1.83, concedes 0.70 · 93 matches

Albacete II away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.09 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvo Sotelo attack 1.83 + Albacete II defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.46

Albacete II attack 1.38 + Calvo Sotelo defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Calvo Sotelo scores more

47%

level

26%

Albacete II scores more

27%

Calvo Sotelo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Calvo Sotelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff