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Calvi Noale vs Virtus Ciserano Bergamo — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Calvi Noale
Calvi Noale
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
3/30/2025Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 33Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calvi Noale42%
×Draw29%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvi Noale
1.25
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
0.98

Calvi Noale creates 28% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

creates per match

Calvi Noale
1.25
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
0.84

allows per match

Calvi Noale
1.11
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
1.26

finishing

Calvi Noale+0.00on par
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvi Noale ↓

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–111%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Calvi Noale or draw
71%
Calvi Noale or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
71%
Draw or Virtus Ciserano Bergamo
58%

Winning margin

Calvi Noale wins by 2+
19%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Calvi Noale 1+ goals
71%
Calvi Noale 2+ goals
36%
Calvi Noale 3+ goals
13%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 1+ goals
62%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 2+ goals
26%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Calvi Noale (draw refunded)
59%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvi Noale at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.26 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvi Noale attack 1.25 + Virtus Ciserano Bergamo defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.25

Virtus Ciserano Bergamo attack 0.84 + Calvi Noale defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Calvi Noale scores more
42%
level
29%
Virtus Ciserano Bergamo scores more
29%

Calvi Noale at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Calvi Noale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie D - Girone C: Calvi Noale 0–0 Virtus Ciserano Bergamo

Calvi Noale and Virtus Ciserano Bergamo drew 0-0 in Serie D - Girone C on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia in Noale.