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Calvi Noale vs Montecchio Maggiore — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Calvi Noale
Calvi Noale
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Montecchio Maggiore
Montecchio Maggiore
A. Vranic 90+2'
12/8/2024Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Group C - 17Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Calvi Noale40%
×Draw27%
Montecchio Maggiore34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvi Noale
1.35
Montecchio Maggiore
1.22

Calvi Noale creates 11% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 53 away

creates per match

Calvi Noale
1.25
Montecchio Maggiore
1.32

allows per match

Calvi Noale
1.11
Montecchio Maggiore
1.45

finishing

Calvi Noale+0.00on par
Montecchio Maggiore+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvi Noale ↓

Montecchio Maggiore →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Calvi Noale or draw
66%
Calvi Noale or Montecchio Maggiore
73%
Draw or Montecchio Maggiore
60%

Winning margin

Calvi Noale wins by 2+
18%
Montecchio Maggiore wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Calvi Noale 1+ goals
74%
Calvi Noale 2+ goals
39%
Calvi Noale 3+ goals
15%
Montecchio Maggiore 1+ goals
70%
Montecchio Maggiore 2+ goals
34%
Montecchio Maggiore 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Calvi Noale (draw refunded)
54%
Montecchio Maggiore (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvi Noale at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Montecchio Maggiore away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.45 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvi Noale attack 1.25 + Montecchio Maggiore defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Montecchio Maggiore attack 1.32 + Calvi Noale defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Calvi Noale scores more
40%
level
27%
Montecchio Maggiore scores more
34%

Calvi Noale at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Calvi Noale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

90+2'
A. Vranic

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calvi Noale vs Montecchio Maggiore

Calvi Noale beat Montecchio Maggiore 1-0 in Serie D - Girone C on December 8, 2024.

Goals: A. Vranic (90+2').

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia in Noale.