Calvi Noale 3–0 Lavis: Result & Stats

Calvi Noale

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Lavis

S. Coin 51', 11'

P. Pasha 40'

10/19/2024

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 9Stadio Comunale Azzurri d'Italia

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calvi Noale64%

×Draw20%

Lavis15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calvi NoaleExpected goals in this matchLavis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

0.87

Calvi Noale

2.04

Lavis

0.87

Calvi Noale creates 134% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 19 away

1.25

creates per match

0.63

1.11

allows per match

2.84

creates per match

Calvi Noale

1.25

Lavis

0.63

allows per match

Calvi Noale

1.11

Lavis

2.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calvi Noale+0.00on par

Lavis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvi Noale ↓

Lavis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

55%45%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Calvi Noale or draw

85%

Calvi Noale or Lavis

80%

Draw or Lavis

36%

Winning margin

Calvi Noale wins by 2+

40%

Lavis wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Calvi Noale 1+ goals

87%

Calvi Noale 2+ goals

60%

Calvi Noale 3+ goals

33%

Lavis 1+ goals

58%

Lavis 2+ goals

22%

Lavis 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Calvi Noale (draw refunded)

81%

Lavis (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvi Noale at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.11 · 36 matches

Lavis away — creates 0.63, concedes 2.84 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvi Noale attack 1.25 + Lavis defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.04

Lavis attack 0.63 + Calvi Noale defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 0.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Calvi Noale scores more

64%

level

20%

Lavis scores more

15%

Calvi Noale at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Calvi Noale will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

S. Coin

40'

P. Pasha

51'

S. Coin

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff