Calvary 1–1 Mbarara City: Result & Stats

Calvary

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mbarara City

12/13/2025

Premier League · Round 10Midigo Football field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Calvary46%

×Draw32%

Mbarara City22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CalvaryExpected goals in this matchMbarara City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.68

Calvary

1.12

Mbarara City

0.68

Calvary creates 65% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 86 away

0.64

creates per match

0.72

0.64

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Calvary

0.64

Mbarara City

0.72

allows per match

Calvary

0.64

Mbarara City

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calvary+0.00on par

Mbarara City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvary ↓

Mbarara City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Calvary or draw

78%

Calvary or Mbarara City

68%

Draw or Mbarara City

54%

Winning margin

Calvary wins by 2+

20%

Mbarara City wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Calvary 1+ goals

67%

Calvary 2+ goals

31%

Calvary 3+ goals

10%

Mbarara City 1+ goals

49%

Mbarara City 2+ goals

15%

Mbarara City 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Calvary (draw refunded)

67%

Mbarara City (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvary at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Mbarara City away — creates 0.72, concedes 1.60 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvary attack 0.64 + Mbarara City defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.12

Mbarara City attack 0.72 + Calvary defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Calvary scores more

46%

level

32%

Mbarara City scores more

22%

Calvary at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Calvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff