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Calvary vs Express — Premier League 2019

Calvary
Calvary
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Express
Express
2/18/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 17

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Calvary38%
×Draw33%
Express29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvary
0.95
Express
0.79

Calvary creates 20% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 101 away

creates per match

Calvary
0.64
Express
0.93

allows per match

Calvary
0.64
Express
1.26

finishing

Calvary+0.00on par
Express+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvary ↓

Express →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
52%48%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Calvary or draw
71%
Calvary or Express
67%
Draw or Express
62%

Winning margin

Calvary wins by 2+
14%
Express wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Calvary 1+ goals
61%
Calvary 2+ goals
25%
Calvary 3+ goals
7%
Express 1+ goals
55%
Express 2+ goals
19%
Express 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Calvary (draw refunded)
57%
Express (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvary at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

Express away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.26 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvary attack 0.64 + Express defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 0.95

Express attack 0.93 + Calvary defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Calvary scores more
38%
level
33%
Express scores more
29%

Calvary at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Calvary will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calvary vs Express

Calvary and Express drew 0-0 in Premier League on February 18, 2026.