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Calvary vs BUL — Premier League 2019

Calvary
Calvary
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
BUL
BUL
1/7/2026Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 12Midigo Football field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Calvary32%
×Draw33%
BUL35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calvary
0.86
BUL
0.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 14 home / 100 away

creates per match

Calvary
0.64
BUL
1.17

allows per match

Calvary
0.64
BUL
1.08

finishing

Calvary+0.00on par
BUL+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calvary ↓

BUL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–116%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Calvary or draw
65%
Calvary or BUL
67%
Draw or BUL
68%

Winning margin

Calvary wins by 2+
11%
BUL wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Calvary 1+ goals
58%
Calvary 2+ goals
21%
Calvary 3+ goals
6%
BUL 1+ goals
60%
BUL 2+ goals
23%
BUL 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Calvary (draw refunded)
48%
BUL (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calvary at home — creates 0.64, concedes 0.64 · 14 matches

BUL away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.08 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calvary attack 0.64 + BUL defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 0.86

BUL attack 1.17 + Calvary defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Calvary scores more
32%
level
33%
BUL scores more
35%

BUL at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "BUL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Calvary 0–1 BUL

BUL beat Calvary 1-0 in Premier League on January 7, 2026.

The match was played at Midigo Football field.