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Callosa Deportiva vs Villarreal III — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Villarreal III
Villarreal III
9/5/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 1Campo de Fútbol El Palmeral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Callosa Deportiva33%
×Draw29%
Villarreal III38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Callosa Deportiva
1.03
Villarreal III
1.14

Villarreal III creates 11% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 112 away

creates per match

Callosa Deportiva
0.83
Villarreal III
1.38

allows per match

Callosa Deportiva
0.89
Villarreal III
1.23

finishing

Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par
Villarreal III+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Callosa Deportiva ↓

Villarreal III →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Callosa Deportiva or draw
62%
Callosa Deportiva or Villarreal III
71%
Draw or Villarreal III
67%

Winning margin

Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
12%
Villarreal III wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
64%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
28%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
9%
Villarreal III 1+ goals
68%
Villarreal III 2+ goals
32%
Villarreal III 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
46%
Villarreal III (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Callosa Deportiva at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Villarreal III away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.23 · 112 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.83 + Villarreal III defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.03

Villarreal III attack 1.38 + Callosa Deportiva defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Callosa Deportiva scores more
33%
level
29%
Villarreal III scores more
38%

Villarreal III at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Villarreal III will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Callosa Deportiva 0 – 1 Villarreal III

Villarreal III beat Callosa Deportiva 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on September 5, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Palmeral in Callosa de Segura.