Callosa Deportiva 0–0 Roda: Result & Stats

Callosa Deportiva

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Roda

12/8/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 16Estadio Antonio Pascual Gil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Callosa Deportiva33%

×Draw33%

Roda34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Callosa DeportivaExpected goals in this matchRoda

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.92

Callosa Deportiva

0.89

Roda

0.92

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 111 away

0.83

creates per match

0.94

0.89

allows per match

0.95

creates per match

Callosa Deportiva

0.83

Roda

0.94

allows per match

Callosa Deportiva

0.89

Roda

0.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par

Roda+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Callosa Deportiva ↓

Roda →

0–016%

0–115%

0–27%

0–32%

0–40%

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2–06%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Callosa Deportiva or draw

66%

Callosa Deportiva or Roda

67%

Draw or Roda

67%

Winning margin

Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+

11%

Roda wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals

59%

Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals

22%

Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals

Roda 1+ goals

60%

Roda 2+ goals

23%

Roda 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)

49%

Roda (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Callosa Deportiva at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Roda away — creates 0.94, concedes 0.95 · 111 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.83 + Roda defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.89

Roda attack 0.94 + Callosa Deportiva defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 34%?"

Callosa Deportiva scores more

33%

level

33%

Roda scores more

34%

Roda at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Roda will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff