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Callosa Deportiva vs Orihuela — Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 2019

Callosa Deportiva
Callosa Deportiva
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Orihuela
Orihuela
10/12/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 6Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 · Group 6 - 7Campo de Fútbol El Palmeral

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Callosa Deportiva33%
×Draw31%
Orihuela36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Callosa Deportiva
0.95
Orihuela
1.02

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 33 away

creates per match

Callosa Deportiva
0.83
Orihuela
1.15

allows per match

Callosa Deportiva
0.89
Orihuela
1.06

finishing

Callosa Deportiva+0.00on par
Orihuela+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Callosa Deportiva ↓

Orihuela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Callosa Deportiva or draw
64%
Callosa Deportiva or Orihuela
69%
Draw or Orihuela
67%

Winning margin

Callosa Deportiva wins by 2+
12%
Orihuela wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Callosa Deportiva 1+ goals
61%
Callosa Deportiva 2+ goals
25%
Callosa Deportiva 3+ goals
7%
Orihuela 1+ goals
64%
Orihuela 2+ goals
27%
Orihuela 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Callosa Deportiva (draw refunded)
47%
Orihuela (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Callosa Deportiva at home — creates 0.83, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Orihuela away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.06 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Callosa Deportiva attack 0.83 + Orihuela defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.95

Orihuela attack 1.15 + Callosa Deportiva defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Callosa Deportiva scores more
33%
level
31%
Orihuela scores more
36%

Orihuela at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Orihuela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Callosa Deportiva 1 – 1 Orihuela

Callosa Deportiva and Orihuela drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 6 on October 12, 2021.

The match was played at Campo de Fútbol El Palmeral in Callosa de Segura.