Calgary Wild W 1–2 Ottawa Rapid W: Result & Stats

Calgary Wild W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Ottawa Rapid W

9/18/2025

Northern Super League · Round 7McMahon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Calgary Wild W22%

×Draw22%

Ottawa Rapid W55%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calgary Wild WExpected goals in this matchOttawa Rapid W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

1.92

Calgary Wild W

1.14

Ottawa Rapid W

1.92

Ottawa Rapid W creates 68% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 18 away

1.05

creates per match

1.83

2.00

allows per match

1.22

creates per match

Calgary Wild W

1.05

Ottawa Rapid W

1.83

allows per match

Calgary Wild W

2.00

Ottawa Rapid W

1.22

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calgary Wild W+0.00on par

Ottawa Rapid W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Wild W ↓

Ottawa Rapid W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–29%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Calgary Wild W or draw

45%

Calgary Wild W or Ottawa Rapid W

78%

Draw or Ottawa Rapid W

78%

Winning margin

Calgary Wild W wins by 2+

9%

Ottawa Rapid W wins by 2+

32%

Team goals

Calgary Wild W 1+ goals

68%

Calgary Wild W 2+ goals

32%

Calgary Wild W 3+ goals

11%

Ottawa Rapid W 1+ goals

85%

Ottawa Rapid W 2+ goals

57%

Ottawa Rapid W 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Calgary Wild W (draw refunded)

29%

Ottawa Rapid W (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Wild W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

Ottawa Rapid W away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Wild W attack 1.05 + Ottawa Rapid W defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.14

Ottawa Rapid W attack 1.83 + Calgary Wild W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Calgary Wild W scores more

22%

level

22%

Ottawa Rapid W scores more

55%

Ottawa Rapid W at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Ottawa Rapid W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff