Calgary Wild W 1–2 AFC Toronto W: Result & Stats

Calgary Wild W

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

AFC Toronto W

6/14/2025

Northern Super League · Round 3McMahon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Calgary Wild W19%

×Draw22%

AFC Toronto W59%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.5%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calgary Wild WExpected goals in this matchAFC Toronto W

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

1.88

Calgary Wild W

0.95

AFC Toronto W

1.88

AFC Toronto W creates 98% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 20 away

1.05

creates per match

1.75

2.00

allows per match

0.85

creates per match

Calgary Wild W

1.05

AFC Toronto W

1.75

allows per match

Calgary Wild W

2.00

AFC Toronto W

0.85

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calgary Wild W+0.00on par

AFC Toronto W+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Wild W ↓

AFC Toronto W →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–111%

0–210%

0–37%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

54%46%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Calgary Wild W or draw

41%

Calgary Wild W or AFC Toronto W

78%

Draw or AFC Toronto W

81%

Winning margin

Calgary Wild W wins by 2+

6%

AFC Toronto W wins by 2+

35%

Team goals

Calgary Wild W 1+ goals

61%

Calgary Wild W 2+ goals

25%

Calgary Wild W 3+ goals

7%

AFC Toronto W 1+ goals

85%

AFC Toronto W 2+ goals

56%

AFC Toronto W 3+ goals

29%

Draw no bet

Calgary Wild W (draw refunded)

24%

AFC Toronto W (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Wild W at home — creates 1.05, concedes 2.00 · 19 matches

AFC Toronto W away — creates 1.75, concedes 0.85 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Wild W attack 1.05 + AFC Toronto W defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.95

AFC Toronto W attack 1.75 + Calgary Wild W defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Calgary Wild W scores more

19%

level

22%

AFC Toronto W scores more

59%

AFC Toronto W at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "AFC Toronto W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff