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Calgary Foothills vs Ventura County Fusion — USL League Two 2018

Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothills
FT
2 – 3
Ventura County Fusion
Ventura County Fusionadvanced
7/20/2019USL League TwoUSL League Two · Conference - Semi-finalsRio Hondo College Soccer Field (Whittier, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Calgary Foothills37%
×Draw23%
Ventura County Fusion40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calgary Foothills
1.66
Ventura County Fusion
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 6 home / 41 away

creates per match

Calgary Foothills
2.00
Ventura County Fusion
2.29

allows per match

Calgary Foothills
1.17
Ventura County Fusion
1.32

finishing

Calgary Foothills+0.00on par
Ventura County Fusion+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Foothills ↓

Ventura County Fusion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Calgary Foothills or draw
60%
Calgary Foothills or Ventura County Fusion
77%
Draw or Ventura County Fusion
63%

Winning margin

Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
19%
Ventura County Fusion wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
81%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
49%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
23%
Ventura County Fusion 1+ goals
82%
Ventura County Fusion 2+ goals
52%
Ventura County Fusion 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
48%
Ventura County Fusion (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Foothills at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Ventura County Fusion away — creates 2.29, concedes 1.32 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Foothills attack 2.00 + Ventura County Fusion defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.66

Ventura County Fusion attack 2.29 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Calgary Foothills scores more
37%
level
23%
Ventura County Fusion scores more
40%

Ventura County Fusion at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ventura County Fusion will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Calgary Foothills vs Ventura County Fusion

Ventura County Fusion beat Calgary Foothills 3-2 in USL League Two on July 20, 2019.

The match was played at Rio Hondo College Soccer Field (Whittier, California).