Calgary Foothills 2–0 Tucson: Result & Stats

Calgary Foothills

FT

2 – 0

Tucson

7/22/2018

USL League Two · Conference - FinalsRio Hondo College Soccer Field (Whittier, California)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Calgary Foothills42%

×Draw23%

Tucson35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Calgary FoothillsExpected goals in this matchTucson

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.58

Calgary Foothills

1.76

Tucson

1.58

Calgary Foothills creates 11% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 29 away

2.00

creates per match

2.00

1.17

allows per match

1.52

creates per match

Calgary Foothills

2.00

Tucson

2.00

allows per match

Calgary Foothills

1.17

Tucson

1.52

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Calgary Foothills+0.00on par

Tucson+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Foothills ↓

Tucson →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Calgary Foothills or draw

65%

Calgary Foothills or Tucson

77%

Draw or Tucson

58%

Winning margin

Calgary Foothills wins by 2+

22%

Tucson wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Calgary Foothills 1+ goals

83%

Calgary Foothills 2+ goals

52%

Calgary Foothills 3+ goals

26%

Tucson 1+ goals

79%

Tucson 2+ goals

47%

Tucson 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)

55%

Tucson (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Foothills at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Tucson away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.52 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Foothills attack 2.00 + Tucson defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.76

Tucson attack 2.00 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Calgary Foothills scores more

42%

level

23%

Tucson scores more

35%

Calgary Foothills at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Calgary Foothills will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff