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Calgary Foothills vs Chicago Fire II — USL League Two 2018

Calgary Foothills
Calgary Foothillsadvanced
FT
1 – 0
Chicago Fire II
Chicago Fire II
7/29/2018USL League TwoUSL League Two · Championship - Semi-finalsFoothills Field (Okotoks, Alberta)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Calgary Foothills32%
×Draw22%
Chicago Fire II46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Calgary Foothills
1.62
Chicago Fire II
1.96

Chicago Fire II creates 21% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 21 away

creates per match

Calgary Foothills
2.00
Chicago Fire II
2.76

allows per match

Calgary Foothills
1.17
Chicago Fire II
1.24

finishing

Calgary Foothills+0.00on par
Chicago Fire II+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

69%Yes
  • Yes69
  • No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Calgary Foothills ↓

Chicago Fire II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Calgary Foothills or draw
54%
Calgary Foothills or Chicago Fire II
78%
Draw or Chicago Fire II
68%

Winning margin

Calgary Foothills wins by 2+
16%
Chicago Fire II wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Calgary Foothills 1+ goals
80%
Calgary Foothills 2+ goals
48%
Calgary Foothills 3+ goals
22%
Chicago Fire II 1+ goals
86%
Chicago Fire II 2+ goals
58%
Chicago Fire II 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Calgary Foothills (draw refunded)
41%
Chicago Fire II (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Calgary Foothills at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Chicago Fire II away — creates 2.76, concedes 1.24 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Calgary Foothills attack 2.00 + Chicago Fire II defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.62

Chicago Fire II attack 2.76 + Calgary Foothills defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Calgary Foothills scores more
32%
level
22%
Chicago Fire II scores more
46%

Chicago Fire II at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Chicago Fire II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

USL League Two: Calgary Foothills 1–0 Chicago Fire II

Calgary Foothills beat Chicago Fire II 1-0 in USL League Two on July 29, 2018.

The match was played at Foothills Field (Okotoks, Alberta).