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Caledonian Braves vs Stirling University — FA Cup 2019

Caledonian Braves
Caledonian Braves
FT
0 – 1
Stirling University
Stirling University
9/18/2021FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundAlliance Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caledonian Braves56%
×Draw20%
Stirling University24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caledonian Braves
2.25
Stirling University
1.42

Caledonian Braves creates 58% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Caledonian Braves
2.50
Stirling University
0.83

allows per match

Caledonian Braves
2.00
Stirling University
2.00

finishing

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par
Stirling University+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonian Braves ↓

Stirling University →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Caledonian Braves or draw
76%
Caledonian Braves or Stirling University
80%
Draw or Stirling University
44%

Winning margin

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+
34%
Stirling University wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals
89%
Caledonian Braves 2+ goals
65%
Caledonian Braves 3+ goals
39%
Stirling University 1+ goals
76%
Stirling University 2+ goals
41%
Stirling University 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)
70%
Stirling University (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonian Braves at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Stirling University away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonian Braves attack 2.50 + Stirling University defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Stirling University attack 0.83 + Caledonian Braves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Caledonian Braves scores more
56%
level
20%
Stirling University scores more
24%

Caledonian Braves at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Caledonian Braves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Caledonian Braves 0–1 Stirling University

Stirling University beat Caledonian Braves 1-0 in FA Cup on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Alliance Park in Motherwell.