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Caledonian Braves vs Stirling Albion — FA Cup 2019

Caledonian Braves
Caledonian Braves
AET
3 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
Stirling Albion
Stirling Albion
C. McLaren 90'
L. Walker 90'
R. McNeil 27'
A. Brown 108'
R. McLean 68' (pen)
C. Eadie 48'
R. Stewart 34' (OG)
10/25/2025FA CupFA Cup · 2nd Round

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caledonian Braves44%
×Draw21%
Stirling Albion35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caledonian Braves
2.05
Stirling Albion
1.80

Caledonian Braves creates 14% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

Caledonian Braves
2.50
Stirling Albion
1.60

allows per match

Caledonian Braves
2.00
Stirling Albion
1.60

finishing

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par
Stirling Albion+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonian Braves ↓

Stirling Albion →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Caledonian Braves or draw
65%
Caledonian Braves or Stirling Albion
79%
Draw or Stirling Albion
56%

Winning margin

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+
25%
Stirling Albion wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals
87%
Caledonian Braves 2+ goals
61%
Caledonian Braves 3+ goals
33%
Stirling Albion 1+ goals
83%
Stirling Albion 2+ goals
54%
Stirling Albion 3+ goals
27%

Draw no bet

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)
56%
Stirling Albion (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonian Braves at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Stirling Albion away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.60 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonian Braves attack 2.50 + Stirling Albion defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 2.05

Stirling Albion attack 1.60 + Caledonian Braves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Caledonian Braves scores more
44%
level
21%
Stirling Albion scores more
35%

Caledonian Braves at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Caledonian Braves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
R. McNeil↳ L. Walker
34'
R. StewartOwn goal
48'
C. Eadie↳ R. McLean
68'
R. McLeanPenalty
90'
C. McLaren↳ L. Walker
90'
L. Walker
108'
A. Brown↳ S. Featherstone
Caledonian
Stirling
Ricky Waddell
Manager: Ricky Waddell
Alan Maybury
Manager: Alan Maybury

FA Cup: Caledonian Braves 3–3 Stirling Albion

Caledonian Braves and Stirling Albion drew 3-3 in FA Cup on October 25, 2025.

Goals: R. McNeil (27'), R. Stewart (34' o.g.), C. Eadie (48'), R. McLean (68' pen), C. McLaren (90'), L. Walker (90'), A. Brown (108').