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Caledonian Braves vs Rothes — FA Cup 2019

Caledonian Braves
Caledonian Braves
FT
3 – 4
Rothes
Rothes
9/21/2019FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundBothwellhaugh Football Pitches

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caledonian Braves59%
×Draw18%
Rothes23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caledonian Braves
2.75
Rothes
1.69

Caledonian Braves creates 63% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 8 away

creates per match

Caledonian Braves
2.50
Rothes
1.38

allows per match

Caledonian Braves
2.00
Rothes
3.00

finishing

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par
Rothes+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonian Braves ↓

Rothes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
93%7%2.5
82%18%3.5
64%36%4.5
44%56%

Double chance

Caledonian Braves or draw
77%
Caledonian Braves or Rothes
82%
Draw or Rothes
41%

Winning margin

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+
39%
Rothes wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals
93%
Caledonian Braves 2+ goals
75%
Caledonian Braves 3+ goals
51%
Rothes 1+ goals
82%
Rothes 2+ goals
50%
Rothes 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)
72%
Rothes (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonian Braves at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Rothes away — creates 1.38, concedes 3.00 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonian Braves attack 2.50 + Rothes defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.75

Rothes attack 1.38 + Caledonian Braves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Caledonian Braves scores more
59%
level
18%
Rothes scores more
23%

Caledonian Braves at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Caledonian Braves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Caledonian Braves 3–4 Rothes

Rothes beat Caledonian Braves 4-3 in FA Cup on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Bothwellhaugh Football Pitches in Motherwell.