Caledonian Braves 6–1 Newton Stewart

Caledonian Braves

6 – 1

Newton Stewart

9/17/2022

FA Cup · 1st RoundAlliance Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caledonian Braves69%

×Draw16%

Newton Stewart15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caledonian BravesExpected goals in this matchNewton Stewart

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.85

1.30

Caledonian Braves

2.85

Newton Stewart

1.30

Caledonian Braves creates 119% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

2.50

creates per match

0.60

2.00

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Caledonian Braves

2.50

Newton Stewart

0.60

allows per match

Caledonian Braves

2.00

Newton Stewart

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par

Newton Stewart+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonian Braves ↓

Newton Stewart →

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4–04%

4–16%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Caledonian Braves or draw

85%

Caledonian Braves or Newton Stewart

84%

Draw or Newton Stewart

31%

Winning margin

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+

48%

Newton Stewart wins by 2+

Team goals

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals

94%

Caledonian Braves 2+ goals

77%

Caledonian Braves 3+ goals

53%

Newton Stewart 1+ goals

73%

Newton Stewart 2+ goals

37%

Newton Stewart 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)

82%

Newton Stewart (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Caledonian Braves at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Newton Stewart away — creates 0.60, concedes 3.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Caledonian Braves attack 2.50 + Newton Stewart defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.85

Newton Stewart attack 0.60 + Caledonian Braves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 69%?"

Caledonian Braves scores more

69%

level

16%

Newton Stewart scores more

15%

Caledonian Braves at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Caledonian Braves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff