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Caledonian Braves vs Fraserburgh — FA Cup 2019

Caledonian Braves
Caledonian Braves
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Fraserburgh
Fraserburgh
9/23/2023FA CupFA Cup · 1st RoundAlliance Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Caledonian Braves51%
×Draw20%
Fraserburgh29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caledonian Braves
2.25
Fraserburgh
1.67

Caledonian Braves creates 35% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 6 away

creates per match

Caledonian Braves
2.50
Fraserburgh
1.33

allows per match

Caledonian Braves
2.00
Fraserburgh
2.00

finishing

Caledonian Braves+0.00on par
Fraserburgh+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonian Braves ↓

Fraserburgh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–26%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Caledonian Braves or draw
71%
Caledonian Braves or Fraserburgh
80%
Draw or Fraserburgh
49%

Winning margin

Caledonian Braves wins by 2+
30%
Fraserburgh wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Caledonian Braves 1+ goals
89%
Caledonian Braves 2+ goals
65%
Caledonian Braves 3+ goals
39%
Fraserburgh 1+ goals
81%
Fraserburgh 2+ goals
50%
Fraserburgh 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Caledonian Braves (draw refunded)
64%
Fraserburgh (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonian Braves at home — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

Fraserburgh away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonian Braves attack 2.50 + Fraserburgh defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Fraserburgh attack 1.33 + Caledonian Braves defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Caledonian Braves scores more
51%
level
20%
Fraserburgh scores more
29%

Caledonian Braves at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Caledonian Braves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caledonian Braves vs Fraserburgh

Fraserburgh beat Caledonian Braves 2-1 in FA Cup on September 23, 2023.

The match was played at Alliance Park in Motherwell.