Caledonia 0–3 Nona: Result & Stats | USL League Two

Caledonia

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Nona

5/24/2022

USL League Two · Round 12Moccasin Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Caledonia15%

×Draw22%

Nona63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaledoniaExpected goals in this matchNona

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.76

1.82

Caledonia

0.76

Nona

1.82

Nona creates 139% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 32 away

0.33

creates per match

1.97

1.67

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Caledonia

0.33

Nona

1.97

allows per match

Caledonia

1.67

Nona

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caledonia+0.00on par

Nona+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonia ↓

Nona →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–114%

0–213%

0–38%

0–43%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Caledonia or draw

37%

Caledonia or Nona

78%

Draw or Nona

85%

Winning margin

Caledonia wins by 2+

4%

Nona wins by 2+

37%

Team goals

Caledonia 1+ goals

53%

Caledonia 2+ goals

18%

Caledonia 3+ goals

4%

Nona 1+ goals

84%

Nona 2+ goals

54%

Nona 3+ goals

27%

Draw no bet

Caledonia (draw refunded)

19%

Nona (draw refunded)

81%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonia at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Nona away — creates 1.97, concedes 1.19 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonia attack 0.33 + Nona defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 0.76

Nona attack 1.97 + Caledonia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Caledonia scores more

15%

level

22%

Nona scores more

63%

Nona at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Nona will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff