Caledonia 1–1 Florida Elite: Result & Stats

Caledonia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Florida Elite

5/11/2022

USL League Two · Round 2Thomas W. Bryant Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Caledonia22%

×Draw26%

Florida Elite52%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CaledoniaExpected goals in this matchFlorida Elite

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.87

1.52

Caledonia

0.87

Florida Elite

1.52

Florida Elite creates 75% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 27 away

0.33

creates per match

1.37

1.67

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Caledonia

0.33

Florida Elite

1.37

allows per match

Caledonia

1.67

Florida Elite

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caledonia+0.00on par

Florida Elite+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caledonia ↓

Florida Elite →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–114%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Caledonia or draw

48%

Caledonia or Florida Elite

74%

Draw or Florida Elite

78%

Winning margin

Caledonia wins by 2+

7%

Florida Elite wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Caledonia 1+ goals

58%

Caledonia 2+ goals

22%

Caledonia 3+ goals

6%

Florida Elite 1+ goals

78%

Florida Elite 2+ goals

45%

Florida Elite 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Caledonia (draw refunded)

29%

Florida Elite (draw refunded)

71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caledonia at home — creates 0.33, concedes 1.67 · 6 matches

Florida Elite away — creates 1.37, concedes 1.41 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caledonia attack 0.33 + Florida Elite defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 0.87

Florida Elite attack 1.37 + Caledonia defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Caledonia scores more

22%

level

26%

Florida Elite scores more

52%

Florida Elite at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Florida Elite will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff