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Caldiero Terme vs San Luigi — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
PST
13:30
San Luigi
San Luigi
3/8/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 31Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Caldiero Terme43%
×Draw26%
San Luigi31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.48
San Luigi
1.21

Caldiero Terme creates 22% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
San Luigi
1.10

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
San Luigi
1.68

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
San Luigi+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

San Luigi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
69%
Caldiero Terme or San Luigi
74%
Draw or San Luigi
57%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
21%
San Luigi wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
77%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
43%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
19%
San Luigi 1+ goals
70%
San Luigi 2+ goals
34%
San Luigi 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
58%
San Luigi (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

San Luigi away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.68 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + San Luigi defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.48

San Luigi attack 1.10 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
43%
level
26%
San Luigi scores more
31%

Caldiero Terme at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Caldiero Terme host San Luigi

March 8, 2020: Caldiero Terme take on San Luigi in Serie D - Girone C. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Caldiero Terme host San Luigi at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.