Caldiero Terme 1–1 Luparense: Result & Stats

Caldiero Terme

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Luparense

A. Filiciotto 58'

Y. G. Gnago 59'

5/7/2023

Serie D - Girone C · Group C - 34Stadio Comunale di Caldiero

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Caldiero Terme37%

×Draw27%

Luparense36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caldiero TermeExpected goals in this matchLuparense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.26

Caldiero Terme

1.29

Luparense

1.26

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 101 away

1.29

creates per match

1.21

1.31

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Caldiero Terme

1.29

Luparense

1.21

allows per match

Caldiero Terme

1.31

Luparense

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Luparense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Luparense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw

64%

Caldiero Terme or Luparense

73%

Draw or Luparense

63%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+

17%

Luparense wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals

72%

Caldiero Terme 2+ goals

37%

Caldiero Terme 3+ goals

14%

Luparense 1+ goals

72%

Luparense 2+ goals

36%

Luparense 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)

51%

Luparense (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Luparense away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.30 · 101 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Luparense defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.29

Luparense attack 1.21 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more

37%

level

27%

Luparense scores more

36%

Caldiero Terme at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

58'

A. Filiciotto

59'

Y. G. Gnago

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff