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Caldiero Terme vs Chions — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
FT
2 – 1
Chions
Chions
1/5/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 20Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Caldiero Terme45%
×Draw25%
Chions30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.56
Chions
1.21

Caldiero Terme creates 29% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 50 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Chions
1.10

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Chions
1.84

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Chions+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Chions →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
70%
Caldiero Terme or Chions
75%
Draw or Chions
55%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
23%
Chions wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
79%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
46%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
21%
Chions 1+ goals
70%
Chions 2+ goals
34%
Chions 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
61%
Chions (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Chions away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.84 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Chions defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.56

Chions attack 1.10 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
45%
level
25%
Chions scores more
30%

Caldiero Terme at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Caldiero Terme vs Chions

Caldiero Terme beat Chions 2-1 in Serie D - Girone C on January 5, 2020.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero).