Caldiero Terme 0–3 Belluno: Result & Stats

Caldiero Terme

FT

0 – 3

Belluno

11/24/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 15Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Caldiero Terme41%

×Draw25%

Belluno34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Caldiero TermeExpected goals in this matchBelluno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.30

Caldiero Terme

1.46

Belluno

1.30

Caldiero Terme creates 12% more chances

Season form · 48 home / 14 away

1.29

creates per match

1.29

1.31

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Caldiero Terme

1.29

Belluno

1.29

allows per match

Caldiero Terme

1.31

Belluno

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Belluno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Belluno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw

66%

Caldiero Terme or Belluno

75%

Draw or Belluno

59%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+

20%

Belluno wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals

77%

Caldiero Terme 2+ goals

43%

Caldiero Terme 3+ goals

18%

Belluno 1+ goals

73%

Belluno 2+ goals

37%

Belluno 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)

55%

Belluno (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Belluno away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Belluno defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.46

Belluno attack 1.29 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more

41%

level

25%

Belluno scores more

34%

Caldiero Terme at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff