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Caldiero Terme vs Ambrosiana — Serie D - Girone C 2019

Caldiero Terme
Caldiero Terme
PST
13:30
Ambrosiana
Ambrosiana
3/29/2020Serie D - Girone CSerie D - Girone C · Round 33Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Caldiero Terme37%
×Draw27%
Ambrosiana36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Caldiero Terme
1.27
Ambrosiana
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 48 home / 31 away

creates per match

Caldiero Terme
1.29
Ambrosiana
1.16

allows per match

Caldiero Terme
1.31
Ambrosiana
1.26

finishing

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par
Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Caldiero Terme ↓

Ambrosiana →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Caldiero Terme or draw
64%
Caldiero Terme or Ambrosiana
73%
Draw or Ambrosiana
63%

Winning margin

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+
16%
Ambrosiana wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals
72%
Caldiero Terme 2+ goals
36%
Caldiero Terme 3+ goals
14%
Ambrosiana 1+ goals
71%
Ambrosiana 2+ goals
35%
Ambrosiana 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)
51%
Ambrosiana (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Caldiero Terme at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.31 · 48 matches

Ambrosiana away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Caldiero Terme attack 1.29 + Ambrosiana defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.27

Ambrosiana attack 1.16 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Caldiero Terme scores more
37%
level
27%
Ambrosiana scores more
36%

Caldiero Terme at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Caldiero Terme will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Caldiero Terme vs Ambrosiana — Match Preview

Caldiero Terme face Ambrosiana on March 29, 2020 in this Serie D - Girone C fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Caldiero Terme host Ambrosiana at Stadio Comunale di Caldiero (Caldiero).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.