Ambrosiana 1–1 Caldiero Terme: Result & Stats

Ambrosiana

FT

1 – 1

Caldiero Terme

11/17/2019

Serie D - Girone C · Round 14Stadio Montindon (Sant'ambrogio Di Valpolicella)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Ambrosiana40%

×Draw25%

Caldiero Terme35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AmbrosianaExpected goals in this matchCaldiero Terme

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.38

Ambrosiana

1.50

Caldiero Terme

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 31 home / 47 away

1.81

creates per match

1.34

1.42

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Ambrosiana

1.81

Caldiero Terme

1.34

allows per match

Ambrosiana

1.42

Caldiero Terme

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ambrosiana+0.00on par

Caldiero Terme+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ambrosiana ↓

Caldiero Terme →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Ambrosiana or draw

65%

Ambrosiana or Caldiero Terme

75%

Draw or Caldiero Terme

60%

Winning margin

Ambrosiana wins by 2+

19%

Caldiero Terme wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Ambrosiana 1+ goals

78%

Ambrosiana 2+ goals

44%

Ambrosiana 3+ goals

19%

Caldiero Terme 1+ goals

75%

Caldiero Terme 2+ goals

40%

Caldiero Terme 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Ambrosiana (draw refunded)

54%

Caldiero Terme (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ambrosiana at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.42 · 31 matches

Caldiero Terme away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.19 · 47 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ambrosiana attack 1.81 + Caldiero Terme defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Caldiero Terme attack 1.34 + Ambrosiana defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ambrosiana scores more

40%

level

25%

Caldiero Terme scores more

35%

Ambrosiana at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ambrosiana will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff